The development of convective storms producing hazards such as tornadoes, large hail, and severe convective winds requires the alignment of multiple specific environmental conditions. Studying these hazards and modeling their climatological frequency on a global scale presents significant challenges due to substantial observational biases. Severe weather report databases cannot reliably represent true climatologies, as they exhibit strong spatial and temporal biases toward densely populated areas and regions with consistent reporting practices (e.g., the United States), while under-sampling many other parts of the world. To circumvent these biases, this presentation explores an alternative approach of translating reanalysis-derived environmental patterns into conditional probabilities of hazard occurrence. Results from this method are presented in the context of operational severe storm forecasting and in relation to a warming climate.

Dołącz do spotkania Zoom
https://uw-edu-pl.zoom.us/j/97971589659?pwd=b3VjngEikkwc3zsktABx4gIMhPdLTI.1

Identyfikator spotkania: 979 7158 9659
Kod dostępu: 678530