Seminarium fizyki atmosfery

Multi-model time-lagged ensemble (ICMENS) – results of the LOBSTER project

dr Marta Kopeć



8 marca 2024 13:15, ul. Pasteura 5, B4.58 and online via ZOOM

The seminar will present outcomes of the LOBSTER project. The project was conducted at ICM UW between 2021 and 2023. The main result of the project -  ICMENS weather forecast - is now being implemented operationally.

ICMENS is a multi-model time-lagged ensemble weather forecast. It combines the results of two deterministic models (UM and GFS) into one coherent forecast with a lead time of 14 days. The seminar will present the methodology used to create it. Forecasts obtained by both deterministic models (i.e. UM and GFS) together with ICMENS were validated and compared.  Initial verification results, that will be discussed, showed that the multi-model time-lagged ensemble forecast gives more accurate results than any of the tested models (both UM and GFS). The seminar will end with the presentation of further development plans and potential ICMENS application scenarios.


PRESENTATION: "Multi-model time-lagged ensemble (ICMENS) – results of the LOBSTER project"

MKopec_Mutli-model_ensemble_ICM_08032024.pdf (1 MiB) Uploaded: 18 marca 2024 10:52

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