Bachelor thesis
Temporal variability of radiation budget over Poland during last decades |
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Author:Supervisor:Supervising institution:Year: |
Igor OkraskaKrzysztof MarkowiczPolitechnika Warszawska, Wydział Fizyki2023 |
In this paper, I analyzed the data resulting from the reanalysis of MERRA-2 and measurements at the Mauna Loa observatory in order to determine the radiation changes over the territory of Poland in the years 1980-2020. For this purpose, using the Python programming language, I read the data, determined the linear regression of each variable along with the uncertainties of fit, and then interpreted the data based on available sources in the subject of atmospheric physics.
The obtained results made it possible to assess the contribution of changes in radiation trends to climate change over the territory of Poland. In each considered case, changes in the radiation budget were statistically significant and varied from 0.1% to 2.5% per 10 years. The uncertainty of budget trends ranged from 11% to 38%, while the uncertainty of budget values ranged from 5% to 19%.
The results showed that the entire column of the atmosphere has a radiation energy deficit, which must be compensated by non-radiative transport - transport of latent and sensible heat to the atmosphere and transport of heat in the ground, advection and large-scale settling processes, because the surplus of energy near the earth's surface is not able to compensate for cooling atmosphere.
I also examined the effect of changes in the optical thickness of aerosols, clouds, cloud cover and concentration of greenhouse gases on radiation changes - here the change in the amount of aerosols in the atmosphere had the greatest impact.