Abstract:

When analyzing plots of global surface temperature anomalies, one can distinguish variations driven by changes in the Earth's energy budget from superimposed fluctuations caused by the redistribution of thermal energy via ocean-atmosphere interactions. The latter are referred to as internal climate variability, the dominant mode of which is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In this presentation, I will examine the ENSO phenomenon against the backdrop of rapidly accelerating global warming. To help the audience visualize the local expression of these global-scale atmospheric and oceanic phenomena, the presentation will feature photographs taken by the author in the Eastern Pacific in January and February 2026, alongside corresponding satellite imagery and numerical model outputs.